The research described in this paper has shown the extent to which Black Americans, people living in crowded housing units, and households with less access to health care are at higher risk of severe illness during a pandemic. The results of other studies provide several possible explanations for these findings. Individuals with lower income are more likely to live in crowded housing units and multifamily homes [15]. Lower income households are also structurally disadvantaged in their access to medical insurance and health care [16]. Some studies have also pointed to a concept called “weathering” within the Black American community. Arline Geronimus, a professor of public health at the University of Michigan, showed through her research that among Black communities, coping with financial strain, discrimination, and barriers to good education elevates the stress response, contributing to obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease [17].

The CDC conducted research on the co-occurrence of COVID-19 and certain ethnicities using a sample of 580 patients with lab-confirmed data [18]. Their results showed more hospitalizations in Black patients than White patients. The researchers cited underlying medical conditions, work circumstances, and living conditions to be major factors in COVID-19 mortalities in their sample. For example, members of racial and ethnic minorities were more likely to live in densely populated areas, making it more difficult to practice social distancing and being more susceptible to contracting and spreading COVID-19. These members also lived farther away from grocery stores and medical facilities, thus being less able to receive necessary resources and medical attention. Other examples cited included Hispanic and Black American workers employed in higher-risk industries and often lacking paid sick leave. The researchers also hypothesized that these types of workers were more likely to continue working despite being sick, thus exposing other workers to the disease. The CDC recommended at the conclusion of this research that public health officials communicate to different population groups about COVID-19 and provide more health care services to ethnic minority groups.

While such studies are insightful, we are not aware of any research that translates these impacts into predictive models that can be used to direct local health care resources to the communities most likely to need them, thereby reducing mortalities caused by an ongoing set of institutional inequities.

That said, some organizations have attempted to create health care resource allocation methods using descriptive statistics. The CDC created the SVI, allowing health care communities to see which factors contribute to socioeconomic vulnerability. The CDC SVI factors are grouped into four groups: Socioeconomic Status, Household Composition & Disability, Minority Status & Language, and Housing Type & Transportation. Although these factors are crucial inputs in identifying specific vulnerable communities, these four categories of factors alone are not sufficient to create the types of predictive models that state and local health care agencies can use. One example of this insufficiency is a recent study at Emory University where researchers identified correlations between COVID-19 mortalities and the SVI at a national level in the United States [2]. While this study is valuable, it stopped short of recommending methods or processes to effectively distribute health care resources to specific counties in the United States, particularly in the early days of the pandemic. Another study from the Surgo Foundation stated that COVID-19 created new challenges for many communities tied to health and structural factors that were not completely captured by the CDC SVI [19]. In addition to the four socioeconomic factors provided by the CDC, the Surgo Foundation added two more factors: Epidemiologic Factors and Healthcare System Factors. They stated that underlying health conditions in addition to health care system factors have been proven to greatly increase a community’s vulnerability during a pandemic. The Surgo Foundation combined these two factors with the CDC SVI to create the COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index (CCVI). The Surgo Foundation created heatmaps to show retrospectively which counties were most vulnerable as measured by their CCVI. Similar to the Emory University study, however, this methodology did not create a predictive model to identify where the mortalities would be highest at peak periods in a pandemic. We also compared the Surgo Foundation heatmap to our own predictive model rankings and confirmed that our projections of the top counties by per capita mortalities were far closer to actual peaks. Results of this comparison are shown in Multimedia Appendix 1.

During the early phases of the research described in this paper, we used the CDC’s SVI, similar to the Emory University study. We explored all of the subcategory factors in the SVI, but none showed strong correlations at a FIPS county level across the United States. We then grouped states together by region and found strong correlations in the most densely populated regions, particularly with the minority status subfactors. Similar to the Surgo Foundation study, we posited that the CDC’s SVI subfactors alone would be insufficient to build predictive models, so a far more complete independent variable data set of socioeconomic and health care data was sourced from the County Health Rankings website as discussed earlier. The key differentiation of our work is the predictive models for each state given the local differences in how each of the factors act as predictors of peak COVID-19 per capita mortalities. Our experience in meeting with the Pennsylvania Department of Health in early June 2020 confirms the uniqueness and usefulness of the approach given that they will be using the predictive modeling process for health care resource allocations in the event of a potential second wave of COVID-19 in Fall 2020. Other state-level departments of health and agents of these governmental functions were similarly intrigued by our predictive approach including those in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Finally, the Chief Information Officer of Johnson & Johnson has forwarded the author’s research to J&J’s Health and Human Services Group for possible use in decisions pertaining to vaccine trial and distribution locations.

A number of limitations must be acknowledged. The models employed in the analyses are reliant on the accuracy of the data sets compiled. COVID-19 mortality data in particular has been notoriously difficult for states to report accurately at a county level throughout the pandemic for reasons including mortality cause classification errors at the offices of the local coroner [20]. This systemic undercounting could have created some correlations between our variables and reporting errors. That said, if reporting errors are similar across counties within a state, then these unwanted effects to our model are likely to be small since we created a different model for each state.

The models are only valid within the range of county-level data for the following states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Models would need to be rebuilt and validated for each additional state. In addition, models for states with lower levels of per capita mortalities were far less predictive, although health care resource allocations would be less critical in those regions.

In addition, we would note that while we did not find significant correlations between the subcomponents of the CDC SVI and COVID-19 mortalities, other data sets at the FIPS level (eg, American Community Survey data and census data) might yield different results. For example, there may be variables that are correlated with one another that also correlate with COVID-19 mortalities. Gore et al [21] showed the difficulties in teasing apart specific population demographic measures at a granular level into a linear regression model since so many of these variables correlate highly with one another.

Our modeling process can be used for the early identification of the communities most in need of health care resources during future pandemics or health crises. The COVID-19 models and the overall methodology have been received with enthusiasm by the New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania Departments of Health. All Commissioners responded positively, which validates our hypothesis that neither other researchers nor the Departments of Health themselves have developed a similar modeling process as a means to allocate scarce health care resources such as testing, treatment, tracing, education, and communication. We have also confirmed the utility of our models with pharmaceutical companies for use in vaccine trial and distribution location decisions.

Future modeling processes could also include building hierarchical models to improve county rankings by better accounting for effects of clustered variables similar to Fulton et al [5] in their 2019 models for predicting hospital-based back surgery by geography. The gradient boosting approach leveraged by Fulton et al [5] may also be useful to examine states with lower population densities where our stepwise linear regression models proved to be weaker. Finally, the group-personalized regression approach pioneered by Palmius et al [22] in their 2018 models for predicting mental health scores by group rather than for an overall population could also be explored.

Other research papers evaluated during the course of this research and other data sets referenced in this research can be found in Multimedia Appendix 2.